The NOAA 2024 Hurricane Forecast
In their report, NOAA scientists predict 17 to 25 named storms, with winds of 39 miles per hour or greater. Meteorologists expect 8 to 13 of those storms to develop into hurricanes, with winds of 74 miles per hour or greater. Of those same 17 to 25 named storms, they predict the 2024 season will include 4 to 7 major hurricanes, with winds of 111 miles per hour or greater.
The 2020 hurricane season holds the record for the highest number of actual named storms (in 2020, there were 30 total named hurricanes). But what is average? A typical hurricane season is comprised of 14 named storms, 7 hurricanes, and 3 major hurricanes, according to NBC6 South Florida .
When Does the Atlantic Hurricane Season Start?
The Atlantic hurricane season officially begins June 1 and ends November 30. CBS News notes the most active part of the season is between mid-August and October.
Why is the 2024 Hurricane Season So Active?
Scientists believe a variety of factors are contributing to this year’s extraordinary hurricane prediction. According to CBS News, “near-record warm ocean temperatures in the Atlantic Ocean, development of La Niña conditions in the Pacific Ocean, reduced Atlantic trade winds and less wind shear, all of which tend to favor tropical storm formation” are contributing.
NOAA also expects a quick changeover to La Niña conditions from one of the strongest El Niños ever observed. These conditions, coupled with one of the strongest west African monsoons , can be beneficial to east winds that, according to NOAA, “seed some of the strongest and longest-lived Atlantic storms.”
What are the 2024 Atlantic Hurricane Names?
For 2024, the Atlantic hurricane names selected by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) are:
- Alberto
- Beryl
- Chris
- Debby
- Ernesto
- Francine
- Gordon
- Helene
- Issac
- Joyce
- Kirk
- Leslie
- Milton
- Nadine
- Oscar
- Patty
- Rafael
- Sara
- Tony
- Valerie
- William
Should the number of named storms exceed the names that have been chosen, the WMO will use the Greek alphabet starting with Alpha, as it did in 2020.
Colorado State University 2024 Atlantic Hurricane Outlook
Earlier this year, CSU and The Weather Channel published their own 2024 Atlantic hurricane season outlook . Their findings agree with the NOAA hurricane outlook, but reduce the number of named storms to 23 and the total number of hurricanes to 11.
Eastern Pacific Hurricane Outlook
For 2024, NOAA predicts a below-average season of hurricane activity for the Pacific Basin. On the west coast, these storms generally remain at sea and do not pose a threat to land mass.
For more information, please visit our Storm Damage Resources